August 2026
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that forms every two to seven years, when the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm well above average. It shifts rainfall and temperature patterns across much of the globe, and coffee — a crop that thrives in a fairly narrow band of temperature and rainfall — is unusually sensitive to it.
The event forming through 2026 is shaping up to be a strong one. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been running well above the long-term average, and meteorologists have flagged the possibility of a "super" El Niño — a designation only a handful of events have earned in the last 75 years, most recently in 2015/16.
The effects won't land evenly across coffee-growing regions. Producers in Vietnam, India, Colombia, and parts of Central America are expected to feel the impact sooner, during the 2026/27 harvest, as warmer and drier conditions arrive during critical growth stages. For Brazil and Indonesia, the bigger concern sits a season further out — the 2027/28 cycle — when higher temperatures and irregular rainfall during flowering could reduce how much fruit the trees set and, ultimately, how much they yield.
Ironically, the immediate backdrop is one of abundance. Brazil's 2026/27 harvest is tracking toward a record, with strong rainfall during last year's flowering setting up excellent tree development. That's part of what makes El Niño's timing tricky: today's record crop was grown under last year's weather, while the futures market is already pricing in the risk to next year's flowering window.
For roasters and importers, the practical takeaway isn't panic — it's planning. Diversifying origins, locking in supply relationships ahead of time, and staying close to what's actually happening on the ground at origin all matter more in a year like this than trying to predict exactly how a single weather pattern will play out.
