August 2026
If it feels like coffee pricing has been unusually unpredictable lately, that's not just a roaster's impression — it's in the numbers. Arabica futures hit a record high above $4.37 per pound in October 2025, driven by tight global inventories and weather damage in key growing regions. Since then, rather than settling into a new normal, the market has kept swinging: down to roughly $2.39 in June 2026, then up nearly 50% in a matter of weeks — the largest weekly gain the market had seen since 2000 — before easing back into the $3.00–3.40 range.
Behind the swings sits a genuine tug-of-war between two forces. On one side, forecasts point to a record global harvest for 2026/27, with Brazil's crop alone projected up double digits year-over-year — a supply story that should, in theory, ease prices. On the other, certified Arabica inventories on the exchange have kept falling through most of 2026, and a slower-than-usual Brazilian harvest pace has meant that record production hasn't yet translated into coffee that's actually available to buy.
Consumers are feeling the lag. U.S. government price data has shown coffee running well above its year-ago levels through most of 2026, and the average grocery price for roasted ground coffee touched a new record earlier in the year. For roasters, that combination — a volatile commodity price plus real-world cost inflation in fertilizer, labor, and energy — makes hedging and multi-origin sourcing less of an optional strategy and more of a basic hygiene factor for the business.
None of this changes what actually goes into a good cup, but it's a useful reminder that the price on a green coffee invoice reflects a lot more than that particular lot's quality — it's sitting on top of a genuinely volatile global market.
